Three weather disturbance could hit RP early this week – PAGASA

By Ronron
November 25, 2007

The government weather station warned on Sunday of a possible occurrence of three weather disturbances in the Philippines early this week.

In a news conference at Camp Aguinaldo yesterday afternoon, Prisco Nilo of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said it is possible that tropical storm Lando, typhoon Mina, and tropical depression Nonoy will be felt in the country all at the same time.

At present, only Mina is inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), which, as of noon yesterday, maintained its strength and continues to threaten northern and central Luzon.

Lando, on the other hand, is already hovering southern Vietnam after leaving the PAR a few days ago, while Nonoy is located off the Pacific Ocean.

Nilo said Lando could re-enter the PAR this morning (Monday) while Nonoy could do the same in two to three days from today (Monday).

Nilo explained that Lando may come back to the Philippines because of the new direction of Mina, which is northwards.

“There is an interaction between the two weather disturbances Mina and Lando, which is called in science as the Fujiwhara effect. What happens is, if one storm moves northward, the other moves southward… If the dominant system changes track, the other follows. And typhoon Mina is expected, upon crossing northern Luzon, is expected to make a u-turn so Lando will follow,” Nilo told reporters in Filipino.

On Saturday morning, PAGASA announced that Mina was taking a new track to the northern Luzon provinces, instead of over Bicol because of the weakening of a high-pressure area near Hongkong and Vietnam.

Nilo said Mina is expected to make a landfall early today (between 2 and 3 am) in Isabela, cross over northern Luzon and exit on Tuesday morning from Ilocos Norte. It is projected to be out into the South China Sea by Wednesday morning.

Mina will affect the northern Luzon provinces of isabela, Cagayan, Apayao, Mountain Province, Kalinga, Abra, Ilocos Norte, Aurora, Quirino, Ifugao, Benguet, Ilcoos Sr, and La Union, among others, as well as the Bicol provinces of Catanduanes and Camarines Norte, said Nilo.

It will also bring rains in Metro Manila until Tuesday.

The track of Lando, on the other hand, is as follows: by today, it could be over Western Visayas, particularly in Palawan, affecting the western section of southern Luzon by Wednesday. From Palawan, it could proceed to southern Panay, northern Negros, northern Cebu, and central Leyte before exiting to the Philippine sea; or, to Mindoro, Aklan, Romblon, Masbate, Albay, Sorsogon and Catanduanes.

As for Nonoy, Nilo said it is unlikely that it will make a landfall, although it could bring in rains in the western part of the country.

Nilo said the movement of Mina farther northwards by Wednesday could eventually cause the possible merging of Lando and Nonoy on Thursday over the Philippine sea.

From there, Lando and Nonoy could head northwards to southern Japan without making landfall in the Philippines, he added.

“Because of this new information provided by PAGASA, the President has ordered a massive preparation, especially in the areas to be affected by the weather disturbances, especially Central Philippines,” Office of Civil Defense (OCD) Administrator Glenn Rabonza told reporters in the same news conference.

National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC) spokesman Dr. Anthony Golez said that President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo was briefed by PAGASA about the same development at around noon time yesterday.

“We are prepared for this development. No less than the President gave instructions to the governors of the areas to be affected like Palawan and Mindoro,” Rabonza said.

He said among the preemptive and proactive measures taken are evacuation of residents in coastal areas, and areas that are at risk due to flooding, flashfloods and storm surge.

The OCD was not immediately aware yesterday as to the number of people to be evacuated and who were actually evacuated already because the activity was ongoing.

“The preventive evacuation is ongoing. It will continue until before the storm hits,” Golez said.

In the Bicol region, about half of the close to 300,000 evacuees because of Mina remain in temporary shelters as of yesterday morning due to the prevailing weather disturbance in some areas.

Data from the Region 5 OCD show that a total of 63,820 families or 298,314 persons from the provinces of Albay, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Masbate and Sorsogon have been brought to evacuation centers.

But starting Saturday, several have been allowed to go home already upon learning that Mina was taking a new course.

Among those who continue to stay in the evacuation centers are 74,356 people in Camarines Sur; 21,686 in Camarines Norte; 28,355 persons in Catanduanes; and some 65,000 people in Albay.

The rest, including the 24,766 evacuees in Sorsogon, will slowly start decamping unless public storm warning signals 2 and 3 are in effect over their respective areas.

“This calibrated decamping means that people in areas where there is no more danger will be evacuated first. This means the people along the coastlines, followed by those in flood-prone and lahar-prone areas,” said Golez.

In its 5pm advisory, PAGASA said that the following areas are under public storm warning signal No. 3: Isabela, Cagayan, Apayao, Kalinga, Mt. Province, Ifugao, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Aurora and Polillo Island.

Public storm warning signal No. 2, on the other hand, is in effect over Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, northern Quezon, Nueva Ecija, Benguet, La Union, Ilocos Sur, Ilocos Norte, Abra, and Babuyan Group of Islands.

Lastly, public storm warning signal No. 1 is declared for Albay, Camarines Sur, the rest of Quezon, Laguna, Rizal, Bulacan, Pampanga, Tarlac, Zambales, Pangasinan and the Batanes Group of Islands.

As of 4pm yesterday, typhoon Mina had maximum sustained winds of 160 kilometers per hour near the center and gustiness of up to 195 kph.

It was located some 180 kilometers north northwest of Virac, Catanduanes or 180 kilometers east southeast of Casiguran, Aurora, and was moving northwest at 15 kph.

Health Secretary Francisco Duque reported in the same news conference that six people from Camarines Sur reportedly died due to the effects of Mina.

Duque said five died due to drowning, while one died after getting electrocuted. The figure is fewer compared to the 14 deaths incurred during the onset of Lano.

With the possible occurrence of the three weather disturbances in the country this week, Duque said all hospitals of the Department of Health were placed on Code White Alert. This means they will be open 24 hours a day, seven days a week so they are ready to extend medical services to victims of the calamity.

Agriculture Undersecretary Doy Salacup, for his part, said that Lando has damaged some Php 73 million worth of palay (P40 M), corn (P20 M), and fruits and vegetables (P13 M) in the Bicol region.

But he said this is just a small portion of the total national production, representing only 0.04 percent for the palay, 0.06 percent for the corn, and 0.04 percent for the fruits and vegetables.

As for Mina, Salacup said they are projecting some loss of about two percent of the total national production for rice, 0.68 percent for corn, and 0.70 percent for fruits and vegetables, all from northern Luzon.

Education Undersecretary for Operations Ramon Bacani said classes at all levels are automatically suspended in areas declared to be under public storm warning signals 2 and 3, while those under signal No. 1 are subject to the assessment of local school and government officials.

On Sunday, the Philippine National Police (PNP) announced that like the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP), it has also declared effective noon of Saturday a unilateral suspension of offensive police operations (SOPO) against the communist movement and other domestic threat groups in five regions in Luzon that are threatened by Mina.

“The SOPO will ensure the availability of all PNP personnel and resources for evacuation, rescue and relief operations in affected areas,” PNP chief Gen. Avelino Razon, Jr. said in a statement.

Razon noted that the regional police directors serve as chairmen of the Regional Disaster Coordinating Councils (RDCC), thus the activity of the PNP is integral in disaster response operations of the country.

But he said that even if the SOPO is in effect, “police units will continue performing normal police functions of law enforcement, and peace and order maintenance.”

During yesterday’s news conference, AFP Vice Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Antonio Romero said that the military units in Luzon and the Visayas are already prepared to help those that will be affected by the weather disturbances.

He said that because of the new development regarding the three weather disturbances, a suspension of offensive military operations (SOMO) were also declared effective yesterday by the AFP Western Command (which covers Palawan) and the Central Command (which covers the Visayas).

In a separate statement, the Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP) announced yesterday that the NPA is also declaring a similar SOMO, as a matter of policy during disasters./DMS